CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2020-01-14T10:00:00-CME-001)

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 14/01/2020 23:15Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 305 km/s
Longitude (deg): 5W
Latitude (deg): 3S
Half-angular width (deg): 16 degs 

Notes: This CME has been very hard to analyse due to lack of Stereo A images at the crucial time. It is too faint and possibly too narrow to appear on SOHO L2/L3. Yet there is a clear halo shock wave and coronal dimming near centre disc from SDO 193 after 14/1000Z. Low confidence in timing due to lack of data with wide spread in analysed speeds from 100 to 425 km/s. ENLIL ensemble data has arrival times on 18th or 19th, although the background ENLIL solar wind speeds are too fast, suggesting a later arrival time on the 19th.
Space weather advisor: Various

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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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